Is there really a difference between overthinking and not thinking at all?
This post is a continuation of my thoughts about builder identity politics, but today I’m focusing on decision-making when we have limited information (which, let’s be honest, is most of the time).
Specifically, let’s consider three types of people:
Person 1: The Non-Thinker
- Needs to make a decision.
- Doesn’t spend time thinking about it.
- Decides by flipping a coin.
- Success rate: 50%.
Person 2: The Over-Thinker
- Also needs to make a decision.
- Thinks about it… and keeps thinking about it.
- Uses fancy words like “epistemology.”
- Has a highly complex system for managing personal knowledge.
- Gets stuck, analyzing the problem from every angle.
- Gets so lost in the details that they miss the big picture.
- Loves shiny, new tools, assuming novelty equals value.
- Despite all this overthinking, their success rate: 50%.
Person 3: The Balanced Thinker
- Has to make a decision too.
- Acknowledges there’s a ton of information out there, but focuses only on what’s relevant.
- Likely achieves better results than Person 1 and Person 2.
In the end, is there really a difference between the person who doesn’t think at all and the one who overthinks everything? Both might end up with the same outcome. What makes Person 3 stand out is their ability to cut through the noise and focus on what really matters.
So next time you’re stuck in an overthinking loop, ask yourself: am I really making progress, or am I just going in circles?